Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll

Jan Christoph Ruelke (1) , Ralf Fendel (2) , Michael Frenkel (2)

1 Department of Economics
2 Economics

This paper uses the monthly Wall Street Journal poll between 2002 and 2008 to analyze whether professional economic forecasters believe in and, thus, apply Taylor-type rules for their own forecasts. Using their forecasts for the Federal Funds rate, the in ation rate and capacity utilization, we estimate whether those are internally consistent with the message of Taylor(-type) rules. We find that the expectation formation can indeed be described by Taylor-type rules.

Mots clés: Social Sciences & Humanities

Domaines: Économie et finance quantitative [q-fin]

Jan Christoph Ruelke, Ralf Fendel, Michael Frenkel. Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll. Applied Economics, 2011, 45 (07), pp.829-838. ⟨10.1080/00036846.2011.613770⟩. ⟨hal-00743770⟩