Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands

Tjibbe Donker (1, 2) , Michiel Boven (1) , W. Marijn Ballegooijen (1) , Tessa M. Klooster (1) , Cornelia C. Wielders (1, 3) , Jacco Wallinga (1, 4)

1 National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
2 UMCG - University Medical Center Groningen [Groningen]
3 Pallas Health Research and Consultancy
4 Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care

During emerging epidemics of infectious diseases, it is vital to have up-to-date information on epidemic trends, such as incidence or health care demand, because hospitals and intensive care units have limited excess capacity. However, real-time tracking of epidemics is difficult, because of the inherent delay between onset of symptoms or hospitalizations, and reporting. We propose a robust algorithm to correct for reporting delays, using the observed distribution of reporting delays. We apply the algorithm to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations as reported in the Netherlands. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide unbiased predictions of the actual number of hospitalizations in real-time during the ascent and descent of the epidemic. The real-time predictions of admissions are useful to adjust planning in hospitals to avoid exceeding their capacity.

Mots clés: Influenza; Epidemiology; Hospitalization; Estimation techniques; Disease notification

Domaines: Santé publique et épidémiologie

Tjibbe Donker, Michiel Boven, W. Marijn Ballegooijen, Tessa M. Klooster, Cornelia C. Wielders, et al.. Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands. European Journal of Epidemiology, 2011, 26 (3), pp.195-201. ⟨10.1007/s10654-011-9566-5⟩. ⟨hal-00680182⟩