Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries

Antoine Bouet (1, 2) , Guillaume Gruere (1)

1 IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington]
2 Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales

A computable general equilibrium model is applied to evaluate the opportunity costs of not adopting Bt cotton, a genetically-modified (GM) insect resistant cotton, in Benin, Burkina- Faso, Mali, Senegal, Togo, Tanzania, and Uganda when it is adopted in other countries. Our model uniquely employs country-specific partial adoption rates and factor-biased productivity shocks in the cotton and oilseed sectors of all adopting regions. Assuming a 50% adoption rate, the opportunity cost of not adopting Bt cotton in the seven surveyed countries amounts to $41 million per year, which is a significant but lower cost than that suggested by the results of previous studies. Trade liberalization only marginally increases this estimate.

Mots clés: Biotechnology; international trade; Sub-Saharan Africa; cotton.; cotton

Domaines: Economies et finances

Antoine Bouet, Guillaume Gruere. Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries. 2010. ⟨hal-00637587⟩