The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

Joerg Doepke (1) , Sebastian Weber (2)

1 Economics Department
2 Economics Department

In this paper we analyse stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch in a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position

Mots clés: Social Sciences & Humanities

Joerg Doepke, Sebastian Weber. The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms. Applied Economics, 2009, 42 (29), pp.3789. ⟨10.1080/00036840802360120⟩. ⟨hal-00582184⟩