Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates

Paula Rodrigues (1, 2) , M. Gabriela M. Gomes (1, 3) , Alessandro Margheri (3) , Carlota Rebelo (3)

1 IGC - Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência [Oeiras]
2 FCT NOVA - Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia = School of Science & Technology
3 Fac. Ciências de Lisboa and Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais

Heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity is inherent to infectious disease transmission in nature. Here we are concerned with the formulation of mathematical models that capture the essence of heterogeneity while keeping a simple structure suitable of analytical treatment. We explore the consequences of host heterogeneity in the susceptibility to infection for epidemiological models for which immunity conferred by infection is partially protective, known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Infected (SIRI) models. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity on disease prevalence and contrast the susceptibility profiles of the subpopulations at risk for primary infection and reinfection. We present a systematic study in the case of two frailty groups.

Mots clés: Partial immunity; Interventions; Tuberculosis

Paula Rodrigues, M. Gabriela M. Gomes, Alessandro Margheri, Carlota Rebelo. Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2009, 259 (2), pp.280. ⟨10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.03.013⟩. ⟨hal-00554590⟩