Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods

Dario Slejko (1) , Alessandro Caporali (2) , Mark Stirling (3) , Salvatore Barba (4)

1 OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
2 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
3 GNS Science [Lower Hutt]
4 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma

We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of  ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an  ≥ 6.5.

Mots clés: Seismic hazard; Strong earthquakes; Probability; Italy

Dario Slejko, Alessandro Caporali, Mark Stirling, Salvatore Barba. Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods. Journal of Seismology, 2009, 14 (1), pp.27-51. ⟨10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x⟩. ⟨hal-00535500⟩