Nonlinear forecasts of ?oF2: variation of model predictive accuracy over time

A. H. Y. Chan (1) , P. S. Cannon (1)

1 Centre for RF Propagation and Atmospheric Research

Space weather effects can strongly influence high-frequency (HF) communications by changing the ionospheric environment through which the radio waves propagate. Since many systems utilize HF communications, the ability to make real-time assessments of propagation conditions is an important part of space weather monitoring systems. In this paper, we present new techniques for measuring high-latitude HF communications link parameters using data from SuperDARN radars. These techniques use ground-scatter returns to define the variation in skip distance with frequency. From these data, the maximum usable frequency (MUF) as a function of range is determined and ionospheric critical frequencies are estimated. These calculations are made in near-real-time and the results are made available on the World Wide Web. F-region critical frequencies calculated using this method show good agreement with ionosonde data.

Domaines: Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

A. H. Y. Chan, P. S. Cannon. Nonlinear forecasts of ?oF2: variation of model predictive accuracy over time. Annales Geophysicae, 2002, 20 (7), pp.1031-1038. ⟨hal-00317085⟩