Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation)

D. Cameron (1) , K. Beven (2) , J. Tawn (3) , P. Naden (4)

1 The Environment Agency
2 Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences
3 Department of mathematics and statistics
4 Institute of Hydrology

A continuous simulation methodology, which incorporates the quantification of modelling uncertainties, is used for flood frequency estimation. The methodology utilises the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL within the uncertainty framework of GLUE. Long return period estimates are obtained through the coupling of a stochastic rainfall generator with TOPMODEL. Examples of applications to four gauged UK catchments are provided. A comparison with a traditional statistical approach indicates the suitability of the methodology as an alternative technique for flood frequency estimation. It is suggested that, given an appropriate choice of rainfall-runoff model and stochastic rainstorm generator, the basic methodology can be adapted for use in many other regions of the world.

Keywords: Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL; Rainfall-runoff modelling

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

D. Cameron, K. Beven, J. Tawn, P. Naden. Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2000, 4 (1), pp.23-34. ⟨hal-00304499⟩