Assessing winter storm flow generation by means of permeability of the lithology and hydrological soil processes

H. Hellebrand (1) , L. Hoffmann (1) , J. Juilleret (1) , L. Pfister (1)

1 Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann (LUXEMBOURG)

In this study two approaches are used to predict winter storm flow coefficients in meso-scale basins (10 km² to 1000 km²) with a view to regionalization. The winter storm flow coefficient corresponds to the ratio between rainfall and direct discharge caused by this rainfall. It is basin specific and supposed to give an integrated response to rainfall. The two approaches, which used the permeability of the substratum and soil hydrological processes as basin attributes are compared. The study area is the Rhineland Palatinate and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and the study focuses on the Nahe basin and its 16 sub-basins (Rhineland Palatinate). For the comparison, three statistical models were derived by means of regression analysis. The models used the winter storm flow coefficient as the dependent variable in the models; the independent variables were the permeability of the substratum, preliminary derived hydrological soil processes and a combination of both. It is assumed that the permeability and the preliminary derived hydrological soil processes carry different layers of information. Cross-validation and a statistical test were used to determine and evaluate model differences. The cross-validation resulted in a best model performance for the model that used both parameters, followed by the model that used the preliminary hydrological soil processes. From the statistical test it was concluded that the models come from different populations, carrying different information layers. Analysis of the residuals of the models indicated that the permeability and hydrological soil processes did provide complementary information. Simple linear models appeared to perform well in describing the winter storm flow coefficient at the meso-scale when a combination of the permeability of the substratum and soil hydrological processes served as independent parameters.

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

H. Hellebrand, L. Hoffmann, J. Juilleret, L. Pfister. Assessing winter storm flow generation by means of permeability of the lithology and hydrological soil processes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2007, 4 (3), pp.1893-1916. ⟨hal-00298852⟩