Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

M. Weiss (1) , M. Flörke (1) , L. Menzel (1) , J. Alcamo (1)

1 Center for Environmental Systems Research

This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

Domaines: Sciences de la Terre

M. Weiss, M. Flörke, L. Menzel, J. Alcamo. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts. Advances in Geosciences, 2007, 12, pp.145-151. ⟨hal-00297036⟩