Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Anne-Laure Fougères (1) , Philippe Soulier (2)

1 ICJ - Institut Camille Jordan
2 MODAL'X - Modélisation aléatoire de Paris X

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t) $ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.

Mots clés: Conditional limit distribution; non parametric estimation

Domaines: Statistiques [math.ST]; Théorie [stat.TH]

Anne-Laure Fougères, Philippe Soulier. Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component. Extremes, 2012, 15 (1), pp.1-34. ⟨10.1007/s10687-010-0122-6⟩. ⟨hal-00288135v4⟩