Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020

Giulia Pullano (1) , Francesco Pinotti (1) , Eugenio Valdano (2) , Pierre-Yves Boëlle (1) , Chiara Poletto (1) , Vittoria Colizza (1)

1 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique
2 UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles]

As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.

Mots clés: 2019-nCoV; Europe; importation risk; travel ban

Domaines: Virologie; Maladies émergentes; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Chiara Poletto, et al.. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020. Eurosurveillance, 2020, 25 (4), ⟨10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057⟩. ⟨inserm-02517345⟩