Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Rémi Fay (1) , Sandra Hamel (2) , Martijn Pol (3) , Jean-Michel Gaillard (4) , Nigel Yoccoz (5) , Paul Acker (1) , Matthieu Authier (6) , Benjamin Larue (7) , Christie Le Coeur , Kaitlin Macdonald , Alex Nicol‐harper , Christophe Barbraud (8) , Christophe Bonenfant (4) , Dirk van Vuren , Emmanuelle Cam (9) , Karine Delord (8) , Marlène Gamelon , Maria Moiron , Fanie Pelletier , Jay Rotella , Céline Teplitsky , Marcel Visser , Caitlin Wells , Nathaniel Wheelwright , Stéphanie Jenouvrier (10) , Bernt‐erik Sæther

1 Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics
2 Departement de Biologie [Québec]
3 College of Science and Engineering [Queensland, Australia]
4 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
5 Department of Arctic and Marine Biology
6 PELAGIS - Observatoire pour la Conservation de la Mégafaune Marine
7 UdeS - Université de Sherbrooke
8 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
9 LEMAR - Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR)
10 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Mots clés: capture-recapture; demographic correlation; demography; environmental stochasticity; slow-fast continuum; stochastic population dynamics; temporal covariation

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Rémi Fay, Sandra Hamel, Martijn Pol, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Nigel Yoccoz, et al.. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecology Letters, 2022, 7, pp.1640-1654. ⟨10.1111/ele.14026⟩. ⟨hal-03681629⟩