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Reduced modelling and optimal control of epidemiological individual-based models with contact heterogeneity

Abstract : Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that socalled individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and describe the dynamics involved in small clusters. In return, such models often involve large graphs which are expensive to simulate and difficult to optimize, both in theory and in practice. By combining the reinforcement learning philosophy with reduced models, we propose a numerical approach to determine optimal health policies for a stochastic epidemiological graphmodel taking into account super-spreaders. More precisely, we introduce a deterministic reduced population-based model involving a neural network, and use it to derive optimal health policies through an optimal control approach. It is meant to faithfully mimic the local dynamics of the original, more complex, graph-model. Roughly speaking, this is achieved by sequentially training the network until an optimal control strategy for the corresponding reduced model manages to equally well contain the epidemic when simulated on the graph-model. After describing the practical implementation of this approach, we will discuss the range of applicability of the reduced model and to what extent the estimated control strategies could provide useful qualitative information to health authorities.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03664271
Contributor : Yannick Privat Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, May 10, 2022 - 7:18:56 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 3:45:55 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-03664271, version 1

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Clémentine Courtès, Emmanuel Franck, Killian Lutz, Laurent Navoret, Yannick Privat. Reduced modelling and optimal control of epidemiological individual-based models with contact heterogeneity. 2022. ⟨hal-03664271⟩

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