A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops

Toshihiro Hasegawa (1) , Hitomi Wakatsuki (1) , Hui Ju (2) , Shalika Vyas (3) , Gerald Nelson (4) , Aidan Farrell (5) , Delphine Deryng (6) , Francisco Meza (7) , David Makowski (8)

1 NARO - National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
2 CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
3 CIAT - International Center for Tropical Agriculture [Kenya]
4 UIC - University of Illinois [Chicago]
5 The University of the West Indies
6 HU Berlin - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin = Humboldt University of Berlin = Université Humboldt de Berlin
7 Pontifcia Universidad Católica de Chile
8 MIA Paris-Saclay - Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées

Abstract Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing the sustainability of food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, representing valuable sources of information for climate change impact assessments. However, the wealth of data produced by these studies has not been made publicly available. Here, we develop a global dataset by consolidating previously published meta-analyses and data collected through a new literature search covering recent crop simulations. The new global dataset builds on 8703 simulations from 202 studies published between 1984 and 2020. It contains projected yields of four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) in 91 countries under major emission scenarios for the 21st century, with and without adaptation measures, along with geographical coordinates, current temperature and precipitation levels, projected temperature and precipitation changes. This dataset provides a solid basis for a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on crop production and will facilitate the rapidly developing data-driven machine learning applications.

Mots clés: yields

Domaines: Milieux et Changements globaux; Sciences agricoles; Intelligence artificielle [cs.AI]

Toshihiro Hasegawa, Hitomi Wakatsuki, Hui Ju, Shalika Vyas, Gerald Nelson, et al.. A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops. Scientific Data , 2022, 9 (1), pp.58. ⟨10.1038/s41597-022-01150-7⟩. ⟨hal-03577269⟩