Individual perceptions on rainfall variations versus metric precipitation trends: an interdisciplinary approach in two contrasted neighbourhoods in Abidjan
Résumé
Global climate projections show that rising trends in precipitation very probably contribute to the resurgence of the risk of flooding in African cities. There remain however uncertainties regarding the patterns of change in past and future precipitation in the countries of West Africa. There are still too few studies focus on the individual perceptions of populations in Africa on these climate changes, although this is an essential lever for the implementation of warning systems. The aim of this presentation is to consider in parallel the perceptions of the residents of the city of Abidjan regarding the variability of precipitation and the meteorological data. A survey among 503 individuals was carried out at Abidjan in two neighbourhoods with contrasting topographical profiles, socio-economic conditions and exposure to flooding, in order to record their perceptions regarding the variations in precipitation between 2009 and 2018. The CHIRPS precipitation data was used to calculate the trends in the climate indicators with the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that there is a similarity between the perception of individuals surveyed and an increasing trend in days of rainfall of more than 50 mm and intensity of precipitation.
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