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Article Dans Une Revue International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction Année : 2021

How do we adapt when we are faced with the effects of climate change?

Mary Guillard
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Oscar Navarro
Sharol Cortes
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Ghozlane Fleury-Bahi

Résumé

In this paper, we investigate the calibration of a mathematical model describing different behaviors occurring during a natural, a societal, or a technological catastrophe. This model was developed in collaboration with geographers and psychologists. To collect information on the level of stress, psychologists of the LPPL laboratory of Nantes (France) led virtual reality experiments. These experiments consisted in immersing individuals in a situation of catastrophe and measuring their electrocardiogram. From the physical and biological data collected, we present the methodology to calibrate the behavioral model. First, a theoretical analysis is carried out to determine (i) if the parameters can be uniquely estimated, (ii) the minimal number of discrete measurements required for the estimation. Then, from these analyses, an estimation procedure is performed to calibrate the mathematical model or at least to have an order magnitude of the model parameters. Through this work, we will show from simulations that the proposed system makes it possible to apprehend non observable human processes.
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Dates et versions

hal-03545369 , version 1 (16-10-2023)

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Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale

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Mary Guillard, Oscar Navarro, Sharol Cortes, Ghozlane Fleury-Bahi. How do we adapt when we are faced with the effects of climate change?. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021, 65 (24), pp.102586. ⟨10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102586⟩. ⟨hal-03545369⟩
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