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Poster De Conférence Année : 2021

IEA Wind Task 36 - Forecast Improvements

Résumé

General Summary: Wind power forecasts have been operationally used for over 25 years. Despite this fact, there are still many possibilities to improve and enhance forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and in the use of the forecasts. Until now, most applications have focused on deterministic forecast methods. This is likely to change in the future as penetration levels increase and weather conditions become more unstable due to climate change. Probabilistic methods are therefore receiving more attention from users. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 36 on Wind Power Forecasting organises international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, ...), forecast vendors and forecast users to facilitate scientific exchange to be prepared for future challenges. Collaboration is open to IEA Wind member states; 12 countries are already actively collaborating. Method: The Task is divided in three work packages: Work Package (WP) 1 is a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction (NWP) model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. This WP will also organise benchmarks for NWP models. The WP2 has been working on an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on how to select an optimal wind power forecast solution for a specific application over the past years. The focus of WP3 is on the engagement of end users to disseminate the best practice in the use of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic forecasts and also what kind of measurements are required in real-time environments . Results: One focus of the recent period was decision making under uncertainty. To this aim, a series of forecasting experiements are being developed and one initial experiment was tested by a wide audience Additionally, a number of open space workshop sessions has been conducted at 3 conferences in order to collect feedback from the idustry on their needs and challenges. We wrote 4 journal papers, which the latestdealing with uncertainty propagation throughout the entire modelling chain. Other results include an information portal for meteorological data, and the IEA Recommended Practice for Forecast Solution Selection which is divided into 3 parts: (1) "Forecast Solution Selection Process", which provides guidance via a decision support tool for the design and implementation of a process to select an optimal forecast solution for a specific application. (2) "Designing and Executing Forecasting Benchmarks and Trials"., providing recommendations on how to design and execute a forecasting trial to provide high quality information that can be used to cost-effectively identify the best forecast solution for a user's set of applications. (3) "Evaluation of Forecasts and Forecast Solutions" , providing guidance on how to formulate an evaluation process to obtain representative, significant and relevant information about an existing forecast solution or differences in forecast performance among a set of candidate solutions. Conclusions: In short, the poster presents the results of the first five years of IEA Task 36 on Wind Power Forecasting, opening a forum for international collaboration in this important field for meteorologists, wind power forecasters and end users. For collaboration, please contact the author (grgi@dtu.dk) and see the website at www.ieawindforecasting.dk
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Dates et versions

hal-03528801 , version 1 (17-01-2022)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-03528801 , version 1

Citer

Gregor Giebel, William Shaw, Helmut Frank, Corinna Möhrlen, Carolina Draxl, et al.. IEA Wind Task 36 - Forecast Improvements. Wind Europe Electric City 2021, Nov 2021, Copenhague, Denmark. . ⟨hal-03528801⟩
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