Can uncertainty propagation solve the mysterious case of snoopy ?
Résumé
In 2015, a mysterious space debris entered the Earth’s atmosphere
under the name WT1190F. Even though it has
been observed before, its origin remains an enigma. Two
major candidates are considered: Snoopy, the lost lunar
module of mission Apollo 10, launched in 1969, and the
trans-lunar injection stage of Lunar Prospector, launched
in 1998.
This study case raises the following question: How is it
possible to compare 2 objects with their positions and uncertainties
measured at different dates? This article will
propose a probabilistic correlation criterion, able to compare
the behaviour of two sets with one another. This criterion
will then be evaluated on the case of WT1190F to
determine which candidate is more likely to be the space
debris.
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