Projected changes in the atmospheric dynamics of climate extremes in France

Pascal Yiou (1, 2) , Davide Faranda (1, 2, 3) , Soulivanh Thao (1, 2) , Mathieu Vrac (1, 2)

1 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
2 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
3 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)

Extremes of temperature, precipitation and wind have caused damages in France, 1 in the agriculture, transportation and health sectors. Those types of events are largely driven 2 by the atmospheric circulation. The dependence on the global climate change is not always 3 clear, and is the subject of extreme event attribution (EEA). This study reports an analysis of the 4 atmospheric circulation over France for seven events that struck France in the 21st century, in 5 various seasons. We focus on the atmospheric dynamics that leads to those extremes and examine 6 how the probability of atmospheric patterns and their predictability responds to climate change. 7 We analyse how the features of those events evolve in simulations following an SSP585 scenario 8 for future climate. Using a range of CMIP6 simulations helps determining uncertainties linked to 9 climate models.

Mots clés: Extreme events; climate change; France

Domaines: Océan, Atmosphère

Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda, Soulivanh Thao, Mathieu Vrac. Projected changes in the atmospheric dynamics of climate extremes in France. Atmosphere, 2021, 12 (11), pp.1440. ⟨10.3390/atmos12111440⟩. ⟨hal-03355316v2⟩