Climate change impacts on coastal wave dynamics at Vougot Beach, France

Abstract : Wave dynamics contribute significantly to coastal hazards and are thus investigated at Vougot Beach by simulating both historical and projected future waves considering climate change impacts. The historical period includes a major storm event. This period is projected to the future using three globally averaged sea level rise (SLR) scenarios for 2100, and combined SLR and wave climate scenarios for A1B, A2 and B1 emissions paths of the IPCC. The B1 wave climate predicts an increase in the occurrence of storm events. The simulated waves in all scenarios show larger relative changes at the beach than in the nearshore area. The maximum increase of wave energy for the combined SLR and wave scenarios is 95%, while only 50% for the SLR-only scenarios. The effective bed shear stress from waves and currents shows different spatial variability than that of the wave height, emphasizing the importance of interactions between nearshore waves and currents. Increases in the effective bed shear stress (combined scenarios: up to 190%, and SLR-only scenarios: 35%) indicate that the changes in waves and currents will likely have significant impacts on the nearshore sediment transport. This work emphasizes that combined SLR and future wave climate scenarios need to be used to evaluate future changes in local hydrodynamics and their impacts. These results provide preliminary insights into potential future wave dynamics at Vougot Beach under different climate change scenarios. Further studies are necessary to generalize the results by investigating the wave dynamics during different storm periods and to evaluate potential changes in sediment transport and morphological evolution due to climate change.