SARS‐CoV‐2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade‐offs

Samuel Alizon (1, 2) , Mircea T Sofonea (1)

1 MIVEGEC - Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle
2 CIRB - Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en biologie

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of the debate on whether hostparasite interactions should evolve towards avirulence. In this review, we first show that SARS-CoV-2 virulence is evolving, before explaining why some expect the mortality caused by the epidemic to converge towards that of human seasonal alphacoronaviruses. Leaning on existing theory, we then include viral evolution into the picture and discuss hypotheses explaining why the virulence has increased since the beginning of the pandemic. Finally, we mention some potential scenarios for the future.

Mots clés: epidemiology; genomics; immune escape; immunopathology; maladaptation; trade-off; virus

Domaines: Maladies infectieuses; Evolution [q-bio.PE]; Génétique des populations [q-bio.PE]; Maladies émergentes; Virologie; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Samuel Alizon, Mircea T Sofonea. SARS‐CoV‐2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade‐offs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 2021, 34 (12), pp.1867 - 1877. ⟨10.1111/jeb.13896⟩. ⟨hal-03289628⟩