Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic

Loïc Berger (1) , Nicolas Berger (2) , Valentina Bosetti (3) , Itzhak Gilboa (4) , Lars Peter Hansen (5) , Christopher Jarvis (2) , Massimo Marinacci (3) , Richard A. Smith (6)

1 LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221
2 LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
3 Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]
4 HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales
5 Booth School of Business [Chicago]
6 University of Exeter Medical School

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.

Mots clés: model uncertainty; ambiguity; robustness; decision rules

Domaines: Gestion des risques [q-fin.RM]; Maladies infectieuses; Sciences de l'Homme et Société

Loïc Berger, Nicolas Berger, Valentina Bosetti, Itzhak Gilboa, Lars Peter Hansen, et al.. Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. ⟨hal-02907328v3⟩