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A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Abstract : Abstract The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter ( β ) and carbon-climate feedback parameter ( γ ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g ) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ . We show that the β -feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm −1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ -feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K −1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K −1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small ( g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models ( g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO 2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03231668
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Submitted on : Wednesday, May 26, 2021 - 6:44:33 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, June 17, 2021 - 3:10:00 AM

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Xuanze Zhang, Ying-Ping Wang, Peter Rayner, Philippe Ciais, Kun Huang, et al.. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback. Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w⟩. ⟨hal-03231668⟩

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