Has the COVID‐19 crisis changed our relationship to the future?
Résumé
The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis introduced a sudden discontinuity in the functioning of human societies worldwide by affecting individual habits as well as economic and social life. This paper is a first attempt to investigate whether this discontinuity also altered our relationship to the future, in particular through the production of scenarios of a “world after” significantly different from the world before. We analyzed the visions of the future produced at the height of the crisis, between March and June 2020, through a selective review of these productions. From the 60 sources found, we selected 23 texts yielding 83 scenarios. We used a classic four-category typology (Continued Growth, Discipline, Collapse and Transformation) that allowed us to identify scenarios of continuity and discontinuity. The results show a paradoxical predominance of continuity scenarios contradicting our hypothesis that this crisis had fostered creativity regarding the world after. The discussion focuses on potential explanatory elements. These are essentially related to the way the scenarios were produced, notably in terms of time horizon, explanation of the methods and selection of the variables structuring the scenarios. These elements seem to indicate that the production of these scenarios was rather inscribed in a posture of reactivity, showing a reluctance to rethink the present as a moment of discontinuity opening up the horizon of possibilities. This initial work paves the way for a more systematic exploration of the practice of anticipation and their capacity to produce creative/imaginative futures in times of crisis.
Domaines
Sciences de l'Homme et Société
Origine : Accord explicite pour ce dépôt