Vaccination strategies for a seasonal epidemic: a simple SIR model

G. Nakamura (1) , B. Grammaticos (1) , M. Badoual (1)

1 IJCLab - Laboratoire de Physique des 2 Infinis Irène Joliot-Curie

We model the effect of vaccination on an epidemic which, like the current one, exhibits a climate-induced seasonality. Our study is carried out using a simple SIR model. One important feature of our approach is that of recruitment: by gradually introducing susceptible individuals we mimic the spatial evolution of the epidemic, which is absent in the classic SIR. We focus on the effect of vaccination on the number of hospital admissions. We show that any delay in the vaccination campaign results in an increase of hospitalisations, and if one tries to palliate for the delay by increasing the vaccination rate, this results in an inflation of the number of necessary doses. Considering a multi-agegroup population we show that it is advantageous to prioritise the vaccination of the older groups (upholding thus the current practice). Finally, we investigate whether a vaccination of the younger population based on awareness can be an optimal strategy, concluding by a negative.

Domaines: Biophysique [physics.bio-ph]

G. Nakamura, B. Grammaticos, M. Badoual. Vaccination strategies for a seasonal epidemic: a simple SIR model. Open Communications in Nonlinear Mathematical Physics, 2021, Volume 1, pp.20-40. ⟨10.46298/ocnmp.7463⟩. ⟨hal-03218696v2⟩