Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants

Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen , Thi Hong Hanh Pham , Thomas Vallée (1)

1 LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique

This paper investigates trade volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three (ASEAN+3) and its links with output volatility, export diversification, and free trade agreements. To achieve this research objective, we apply several econometric estimators to data from all ASEAN+3 member states over the period 1990–2016. We first find evidence of a positive relationship between output volatility and trade volatility. Second, we reveal that the way export diversification is measured can influence its impacts on bilateral export volatility. Moreover, the relationship between income volatility, trade volatility, and export diversification seems to depend on country size and the level of economic development.

Mots clés: ASEAN+3; Export diversification; FTA; Output volatility; Trade volatility

Domaines: Economies et finances

Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen, Thi Hong Hanh Pham, Thomas Vallée. Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants. Asian Development Review, 2020, 37 (2), pp.167-200. ⟨10.1162/adev_a_00153⟩. ⟨hal-03193648⟩