Urbanisation, Climate Change and Stormwater Management Strategies: Modelling the Future Flow Regimes of Peri-Urban Streams in Lyon,France.
Résumé
The health of peri-urban rivers is under pressure due to accelerating urbanisation and climate change. Predicting their flow regime in a few decades is a challenge. We modelled the hydrology of two peri-urban catchments with the physically-based, spatially distributed hydrological model J2000P at the hourly timestep. We aimed to quantify the respective impact of 1/ real life scenarios of future urban development, 2/ climate change and 3/ potential stormwater management strategies (‘disconnecting imperviousness’) on the flow regimes of both rivers. We developed J2000P to integrate a site-scale model of green infrastructure. For several scenarios (combination of land use, climate, stormwater management scenarios), we looked at a range of hydrological signatures and metrics such as catchment water balance, baseflow behaviour, storm related metrics, combined-sewer overflows to calibrate the model and quantify the relative impact of landuse change, climate change and stormwater management. Preliminary results show that the model can be well calibrated to reproduce current flow regimes. Impending simulations will take into account future urbanisation scenarios and climate change characteristics, as well as disconnection strategies. Results will inform local public policies about the extent of green infrastructure implementation required to keep healthy rivers in the coming decades.
Domaines
Hydrologie
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