Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics

Thomas Bénéteau (1) , Elie ` Baptiste (1) , Mircea T Sofonea (1) , Samuel Alizon (1, 2)

1 MIVEGEC - Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle
2 CIRB - Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en biologie

Estimating the date at which an epidemic started in a country and the date at which it can end depending on interventions intensity are important to guide public health responses. Both are potentially shaped by similar factors including stochasticity (due to small population sizes), superspreading events, and memory effects. Focusing on COVID-19 epidemics, we develop and analyse mathematical models to explore how these three factors may affect early and final epidemic dynamics. Regarding the date of origin, we find limited effects on the mean estimates, but strong effects on their variances. Regarding the date of extinction following lock-down onset, mean values decrease with stochasticity or with the presence of superspreading events. These results underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in infection history and transmission patterns to make accurate predictions regarding epidemic temporal estimates.

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation; Biodiversité et Ecologie; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Bio-Informatique, Biologie Systémique [q-bio.QM]; Evolution [q-bio.PE]; Systématique, phylogénie et taxonomie; Ecosystèmes; Interactions entre organismes; Santé; Génétique des populations [q-bio.PE]; Virologie

Thomas Bénéteau, Elie ` Baptiste, Mircea T Sofonea, Samuel Alizon. Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics. Peer Community Journal, 2021, 1, pp.e70. ⟨10.24072/pcjournal.63⟩. ⟨hal-03120811v2⟩