Large-scale Epidemiological Modelling: Exploring the Impact of the ASEAN Economic Corridors Policy on the Dengue Fever Epidemic
Résumé
In this study, we present an implementation of a hybrid, integrated model that supports various explorations of the relationship between the increasing regional integration among ASEAN countries and the Dengue fever epidemic in the same countries. Using the available public data on economic exchanges, climatic conditions and dengue fever cases as the input, we designed a complex model composed of three sub-models: a SEIR/SIR mathematical epidemiological model that operates at a local scale and combines the population dynamics of mosquitoes with the computation of infected mosquitoes and people, a cellular automata model that provides support for the spread of infected mosquitoes and people between its cells, an agent-based model based on accurate GIS road data, which reproduces the traffic of trucks between countries, and an agent-based model of control policy decision-making at the scale of each country. All these models were coupled within the same framework, supported by the GAMA modelling and simulation platform (http://gama-platform.org), which scheduled them using a timescale of 12 hours over 10 years (from 2002 to 2011). This integrated model has been designed to be completely generic: provided the required data (on climate conditions, dengue cases, commercial exchanges, and health policies) was available, it could be applied to any geographic location at any spatial scale. It has been extensively tested on a specific case study: the terrestrial East-West Economic Corridor, a continuous land route that links Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar.
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