Solar radiation prediction for a winter day using ARMA model

Ines Sansa , Zina Boussaada (1) , Mourad Mazigh , Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj

1 ESTIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Solar radiation prediction has a great importance for many applications such as PV power forecasting and solar water heaters. The need of solar radiation prediction increase over time and certainly the accurate prediction can greatly improve the performance of these applications. In this paper a prediction of solar radiation for a winter day using ARMA model is performed. The performance of this model to predict the solar radiation has been validated for a real database. Simulations results show that the effectiveness of ARMA model is proven to predict especially the small variation of solar radiation.

Mots clés: Solar radiation; ARMA; Prediction I

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]

Ines Sansa, Zina Boussaada, Mourad Mazigh, Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj. Solar radiation prediction for a winter day using ARMA model. 2020 6th IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCon), Sep 2020, Gammarth (virtual), Tunisia. pp.326-330, ⟨10.1109/ENERGYCon48941.2020.9236541⟩. ⟨hal-03036381⟩