Restarted Bayesian Online Change-point Detector achieves Optimal Detection Delay

Réda Alami (1) , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard (2) , Raphael Féraud (1)

1 Orange Labs [Lannion]
2 Scool - Scool

In this paper, we consider the problem of sequential change-point detection where both the changepoints and the distributions before and after the change are assumed to be unknown. For this problem of primary importance in statistical and sequential learning theory, we derive a variant of the Bayesian Online Change Point Detector proposed by (Fearnhead & Liu, 2007) which is easier to analyze than the original version while keeping its powerful message-passing algorithm. We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the false-alarm rate and the detection delay that matches the existing lower-bound. We further provide the first explicit high-probability control of the detection delay for such approach. Experiments on synthetic and realworld data show that this proposal outperforms the state-of-art change-point detection strategy, namely the Improved Generalized Likelihood Ratio (Improved GLR) while compares favorably with the original Bayesian Online Change Point Detection strategy.

Domaines: Machine Learning [stat.ML]; Statistiques [math.ST]

Réda Alami, Odalric-Ambrym Maillard, Raphael Féraud. Restarted Bayesian Online Change-point Detector achieves Optimal Detection Delay. International Conference on Machine Learning, Jul 2020, Wien, Austria. ⟨hal-03021712⟩