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Evidence Collection and Inductive Inference

Abstract : We study a two-period model where the decision in the second period is based on the ex ante test choice. Individuals are assumed to rank pairs of an option and a trial, where an option is a finite subset of alternatives that represents second period possible choices, and a trial is a finite subset of tests that renders the information of alternatives. Several axioms yield a numerical representation through a credence function as follows. The credence function assigns numbers to alternative-test pairs. The credence number attached to an alternative-test pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the test renders to the plausibility of the alternative. Given a trial, each alternative is assessed according to the sum of credence numbers over tests in the trial. A pair of an option and a trial is therefore ranked according to the maximum sum of credence numbers among the option with respect to the trial.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 20, 2020 - 11:29:31 PM
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Xiangyu Qu. Evidence Collection and Inductive Inference. Revue Economique, Presses de Sciences Po, 2020, Special issue dedicated to David Schmeidler, 71 (2), pp.349. ⟨10.3917/reco.712.0349⟩. ⟨hal-02973213⟩



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