A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?

Sébastien Charles (1) , Jonathan Marie (2)

1 LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien
2 CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord

This note aims at analyzing Bulgaria’s high inflation regime during the 1990s. Two competing causes of high inflation are explored: changes in the rate of growth of the money supply in the economy and changes in the foreign exchange rate. Both correspond to traditional theoretical explanations: the monetarist view and the balance of payments approach. Evidence suggests that a variation in the exchange rate is significant in explaining the high inflation regime in Bulgaria whereas monetary growth appears to be insignificant. Consequently, the paper underlines the importance of stabilizing the exchange rate in the short run in order to avoid high inflation.

Mots clés: Inflation; money supply; exchange rate

Domaines: Economies et finances

Sébastien Charles, Jonathan Marie. A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?. Review of Political Economy, 2020, 32 (3), pp.433-443. ⟨10.1080/09538259.2020.1787002⟩. ⟨hal-02962539⟩