Financial Sustainability of the Algerian Retirement System: A Perspective Analysis of the 50 Coming Years

Farid Flici (1) , Frédéric Planchet (2)

1 CREAD - Centre de recherches en économie appliquée au développement
2 UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1

Maintaining retirement systems stability is nowadays a big challenge for all countries. Such sustainability is widely related to a set of time-varying elements that include population structure, longevity, employment, and affiliation to social security. For the case of Algeria, public retirement works according to the pay-as-you-go principle and equilibrium is maintained by public subsidy. But, population is now aging, and longevity is improving. The retired population is supposed to grow faster than the population at working age. Consequently, it will be harder to keep equality between retirement incomes and outcomes especially if we consider the weakness of the demand for social security among workers. The latter remains widely dependent on public employment; the employees of the private sector are less covered. In the present paper, we aim to simulate the future evolution of the demographic and economic factors affecting the stability of the Algerian retirement system in order to show their long-run effect. As a result, we found that it will be impossible to keep the retirement sustainability within its current design. The accelerating aging process imposes to undertake heavy reforms in the near future.

Mots clés: Retirement; Experience mortality; Contribution rates; Aging; Longevity; Pay-as-you-go

Domaines: Mathématiques [math]; Économie et finance quantitative [q-fin]

Farid Flici, Frédéric Planchet. Financial Sustainability of the Algerian Retirement System: A Perspective Analysis of the 50 Coming Years. In: Marta Peris-Ortiz, José Álvarez-García, Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabián, Pierre Devolder. Economic Challenges of Pension Systems, Springer, Cham, pp. 275-309, 2020, 978-3-030-37911-7. ⟨10.1007/978-3-030-37912-4_13⟩. ⟨hal-02959072⟩