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Transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic in France

Lina Guan 1 Christophe Prieur 1 Liguo Zhang 2 Clémentine Prieur 3, 4 Didier Georges 1 Pascal Bellemain 5
1 GIPSA-INFINITY - GIPSA - Infinite Dimensional Dynamics
GIPSA-PAD - GIPSA Pôle Automatique et Diagnostic
3 AIRSEA - Mathematics and computing applied to oceanic and atmospheric flows
Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology
5 GIPSA-Services - GIPSA-Services
GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique
Abstract : An extension of the classical pandemic SIRD model is considered for the regional spread of COVID-19 in France under lockdown strategies. This compartment model divides the infected and the recovered individuals into unde-tected and detected compartments respectively. By fitting the extended model to the real detected data during the lockdown, an optimization algorithm is used to derive the optimal parameters, the initial condition and the epidemics start date of regions in France. Considering all the age classes together, a network model of the pandemic transport between regions in France is presented on the basis of the regional extended model and is simulated to reveal the transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic after lockdown. Using the the measured values of displacement of people mobilizing between each city, the pandemic network of all cities in France is simulated by using the same model and method as the pandemic network of regions. Finally, a discussion on an integro-differential equation is given and a new model for the network pandemic model of each age is provided.
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Lina Guan, Christophe Prieur, Liguo Zhang, Clémentine Prieur, Didier Georges, et al.. Transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic in France. Annual Reviews in Control, Elsevier, 2020, 50, pp.394-408. ⟨10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.09.009⟩. ⟨hal-02906401⟩

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