Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components
Résumé
The weakening of global value chain dynamics is considered as one of the causes of the slowdown in world trade since the 2008 crisis. To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2017, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control for price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values, and take into account the evolution of the global business cycle. We show that the development of international value chains, measured as the share of trade in P&C in manufacturing world trade in volume, continued after the crisis. Moreover, such dynamics are not the result of sectoral composition effects.