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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2020

The impact of carbon dioxide aviation emissions on future climate change

Résumé

Aviation emissions are estimated to contribute to 5 % (2–14 %, 90 % likelihood range) of the anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate with an uncertainty dominated by non-CO2 effects (Lee et al., 2010). Even if the level of scientific understanding is considered to be high by the IPCC for present-day aviation CO2 impact compared to other non-CO2 forcers (e.g. ozone, aerosols and contrails), the future (2050) aviation CO2 climate impact remains highly uncertain. One major reason of these varying estimates is linked to the inherent assumptions made in the development of future global emission scenarios such as the one from international aviation (Boucher et al., 2016). Hence, using the compact Earth System Model (ESM) OSCARv2.2 we quantify the climate impact of present and future (up to 2100) civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using eight aviation scenarios ranging from 386 Mt CO2/year (Factor 2 scenario) to 2338 Mt CO2/year (ICAO/CAEP scenario) in 2050. This approach will allow quantifying the uncertainty due to the difficulty to estimate the future mitigation effort. Another originality of the paper is that the influence of other emission sectors is evaluated using two background Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Results show that in 2050, on a climate trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement limiting the global warming below 2 °C (RCP2.6), the impact of the aviation CO2 emissions ranges from 26 ± 2 mK (1.4 % of the total global warming associated with all fossil fuel emissions) for an ambitious mitigation strategy scenario (Factor 2) to 39 ± 4 mK (2.0 % of the total global warming) for the least ambitious mitigation scenario of the study (ICAO-CAEP). On the longer term, if no significant emission mitigation is implemented for the aviation sector, the associated warming could further increase and reach a value of 100 mK in 2100 (ICAO/CAEP), which corresponds to 5.2 % of the total global temperature increase from total fossil fuel CO2 emissions under RCP2.6.
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Dates et versions

hal-02859983 , version 1 (08-06-2020)

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  • HAL Id : hal-02859983 , version 1

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Etienne Terrenoire, Didier Hauglustaine, Thomas Gasser, Olivier Penanhoat. The impact of carbon dioxide aviation emissions on future climate change. 1st Edition of the Aerospace Europe Conference – AEC2020, Feb 2020, Bordeaux, France. ⟨hal-02859983⟩
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