Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Shufen Pan (1) , Naiqing Pan (1) , Hanqin Tian (1) , Pierre Friedlingstein (2) , Stephen Sitch (3) , Hao Shi (1) , Vivek Arora (4) , Vanessa Haverd (5) , Atul Jain (6) , Etsushi Kato (7) , Sebastian Lienert (8) , Danica Lombardozzi (9) , Julia Nabel (10) , Catherine Ottle (11, 12) , Benjamin Poulter (13) , Sönke Zaehle (14) , Steven Running (15)

1 AU - Auburn University
2 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
3 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
4 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
5 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale]
6 Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana]
7 TITECH - Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo]
8 CEP - Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern]
9 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
10 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
11 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
12 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
13 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
14 Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena]
15 MSU - Montana State University

Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr −1 (6.56 × 10 4 km 3 yr −1) to 617.1 mm yr −1 (6.87 × 10 4 km 3 yr −1). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr −2 with a significance level of p < 0.05 and 0.38 mm yr −2 with a significance level of p < 0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr −2 , p > 0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1486 S. Pan et al.: Evaluation of global terrestrial ET all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr −1. Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in pa-rameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model-data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

Domaines: Océan, Atmosphère; Interfaces continentales, environnement

Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, et al.. Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2020, 24 (3), pp.1485-1509. ⟨10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020⟩. ⟨hal-02532761⟩