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Changes in the flooding area due to storm surge under climate change in an extensive wetland area in the southern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract : RESUMEN Se estudian, mediante el análisis de observaciones y simulaciones numéricas, las inundaciones causadas por frentes fríos intensos y cómo éstas podrían cambiar en diferentes escenarios de aumento del nivel del mar en la Laguna de Términos, México. El modelo numérico de circulación oceánica utilizado es el Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (el forzamiento meteorológico proviene de simulaciones de alta resolución con el modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Las simulaciones oceánicas se llevaron a cabo utilizando mallas no estructuradas y configuraciones con la posibilidad de inundación y secado en las celdas. Los resultados de las simulaciones numéricas se compararon con observaciones. Teniendo en cuenta el nivel del mar actual, un evento intenso de Norte inunda un área de 940 km 2 , que actualmente está cubierta por manglares. Esto indica que los Nortes son importantes en la irrigación de extensas áreas de manglar. Para los escenarios de aumento del nivel del mar de 0.25, 0.50 y 0.75 m, las áreas inundadas se incrementan en 297, 1062 y 2152 km 2 , respectivamente, lo cual implica un aumento considerable en las áreas inundadas en Isla del Carmen. Se sugiere considerar estos resultados en la planificación a largo plazo. ABSTRACT Floods caused by intense cold fronts and how they could change under different scenarios of sea level rise in the Terminos Lagoon, Mexico, are studied through the analysis of observations and numerical simulations. The numerical ocean model used is the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) of the Marine Ecosystem Dynamics Modeling Laboratory of the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, and the meteorological forcing comes from high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The ocean simulations were carried out using unstructured meshes with the possibility of flooding and drying in their cells. Results of the numerical simulations were compared against observations. Considering the current mean sea level, an intense northern cold front event (or Norte) floods an area of 940 km 2 that is currently covered by mangroves. This indicates that Nortes are important in the irrigation of extensive mangrove areas. Under scenarios of sea level rise of 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75 m the flooded areas increase by 297, 1062 and 2152 km 2 , representing a considerable increase in the areas flooded at Isla del Carmen. It is suggested to consider this situation in long-term planning.
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Submitted on : Friday, April 3, 2020 - 2:29:53 PM
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Ovel Díaz-García, Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo, Pascal Douillet, Adolfo Contreras Ruiz-Esparza, Renaud Fichez, et al.. Changes in the flooding area due to storm surge under climate change in an extensive wetland area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, 2020, 33, pp.105 - 121. ⟨10.20937/ATM.52702⟩. ⟨hal-02531107⟩

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