REAL-TIME DATA ANALYTICS AND PREDICTION OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC (PERIOD TO MARCH 22TH, 2020)

Chehbi Gamoura Chehbi (1)

1 EM Strasbourg - École de Management de Strasbourg = EM Strasbourg Business School

This brief paper is versioned 1 in a series of short papers that describe a set of descriptive and predictive analytics of the pandemic COVID-19 around the world. We exceptionally propose this new and uncommon way of publications because of the current emergency circumstances where Data are gathered and analyzed directly day by day. Because of the new behavior regarding the spread speed and the contagion features of this virus, we opted by comparative analytics based on demographic characteristics in localities and countries for prediction, without using historical data in epidemiology. The test proofs of our findings are done day by day with the real figures reported from the Data. To feed our models in algorithms, we refer to the reported cases from the Data of the World Health Organization (WHO). Because of the current circumstances of emergency, this paper is brief and will be succeeded with a series of versions until the end of the pandemic. The full paper will be published afterward with more details about the functions, the model, and the variables included in our algorithms.. Findings 1: The strange Peak of new cases in China on February 12 th in China The chart illustrates the strange peak (jump) of 14,840 cases in one day on February 12 th , 2020. This day fits with 18 days after January 25 th , 2020. We now also that the Chinese New Year celebration day this year. Our interpretation is that after a couple of weeks of virus incubation, infected people displayed symptoms and have been declared. At this time, in China, the incubation period is then evaluated to an average of15 days. This means people didn't respect the Containment period imposed by the government during their celebration day.

Domaines: Intelligence artificielle [cs.AI]; Biologie cellulaire

Chehbi Gamoura Chehbi. REAL-TIME DATA ANALYTICS AND PREDICTION OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC (PERIOD TO MARCH 22TH, 2020). 2020. ⟨hal-02518413v2⟩