Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-temporal host-vector epidemic model

Olivier Martin (1) , Yasmil Fernandez-Diclo (1) , Jérôme Coville (1) , Samuel Soubeyrand (1)

1 BioSP - Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux

Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and the multi-foci outbreak caused by the bacterium {\it Xylella fastidiosa} in Europe in the 2010s. In this article, we propose and analyze the behavior of a spatially-explicit compartmental model adapted to pathosystems with fixed hosts and mobile vectors disseminating the disease. The behavior of this model based on a system of partial differential equations is complementarily characterized via a theoretical study of its equilibrium states and a numerical study of its transitive phase using global sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed in terms of implications concerning the surveillance and control of the disease over a medium-to-long temporal horizon.

Mots clés: Equilibrium analysis; Xylella fastidiosa.; Compartmental model; Global sensitivity analysis; Partial differential equations; Transitive phase; Xylella fastidiosa

Domaines: Equations aux dérivées partielles [math.AP]; Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Olivier Martin, Yasmil Fernandez-Diclo, Jérôme Coville, Samuel Soubeyrand. Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-temporal host-vector epidemic model. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 2021, 57, ⟨10.1016/j.nonrwa.2020.103194⟩. ⟨hal-02482090⟩