Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America

Juan Fernández-Manjarrés (1)

1 ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution

Species distribution models (SDM) is a powerful simulation tool that has become widely used in the ecological and agronomical sciences. The use of easily available presence data, global downscaled climate layers and software that can run on desktop computer has contributed to their popularity. The most used application is based on maximum entropy models that fit presence data to a series of environmental descriptors. SDM can be used to predict crop distribution under future conditions but the level of uncertainty of those models can be very high. The best use of these models is to be used as generators of hypothesis to be combined with other type of analysis.

Domaines: Milieux et Changements globaux

Juan Fernández-Manjarrés. Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America. Economic Tools and Methods for the Analysis of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security, Springer International Publishing, pp.11-23, 2018, ⟨10.1007/978-3-319-99462-8_2⟩. ⟨hal-02390633⟩