Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level

Rui Ponte (1) , Mark L Carson (2) , Mauro Cirano , Catia Domingues (3) , Svetlana Jevrejeva (4) , Marta Marcos (5) , Gary Mitchum , R. van de Wal , Philip Woodworth (6) , Michael Ablain (7) , Fabrice Ardhuin (8) , Valérie Ballu (9) , Melanie Becker (10) , Jérôme Benveniste (11) , Florence Birol (12) , Elizabeth Bradshaw , Anny Cazenave (10) , P. de Mey-Frémaux , Fabien Durand , Tal Ezer , Lee-Lueng Fu (13) , Ichiro Fukumori , Kathy Gordon , Médéric Gravelle (9) , Stephen M Griffies (14) , Weiqing Han (15) , Angela Hibbert , Chris Hughes (16) , Déborah Idier (17) , Villy Kourafalou , Christopher Little , Andrew Matthews , Angélique Mélet (10) , Mark Merrifield , Benoit Meyssignac (10) , Shoshiro Minobe , Thierry Penduff (18) , Nicolas Picot (19) , Christopher Piecuch (20) , Richard Ray , Lesley Rickards , Alvaro Santamaria-Gomez (9) , Detlef Stammer (21) , Joanna Staneva , Laurent Testut (9) , Keith Thompson , Philip Thompson , Stefano Vignudelli (22) , Joanne Williams , Simon Williams , Guy Woppelmann (9) , Laure Zanna (23) , Xuebin Zhang (24)

1 AER - Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
2 University of Hamburg
3 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology
4 NOC - National Oceanography Centre [Southampton]
5 IMEDEA - Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats
6 NERC - Natural Environment Research Council
7 CLS - Collecte Localisation Satellites [Toulouse]
8 HOM - Division Hydrographie Océanographie et Météorologie Militaire
9 LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés
10 LEGOS - Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales
11 ESA - Agence Spatiale Européenne = European Space Agency
12 ECOLA - Echanges Côte-Large
13 JPL - Jet Propulsion Laboratory
14 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
15 ATOC - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder]
16 Bangor University
17 BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)
18 IGE - Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement
19 CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse]
20 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
21 Institute of Marine Sciences
22 CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
23 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
24 CSIRO - CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multidecadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes.We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting shortterm processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.

Mots clés: coastal sea level; sea-level trends; coastal ocean modeling; coastal impacts; coastal adaptation; observational gaps; integrated observing system

Domaines: Océanographie

Rui Ponte, Mark L Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia Domingues, Svetlana Jevrejeva, et al.. Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2019, 6, ⟨10.3389/fmars.2019.00437⟩. ⟨hal-02323507⟩