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Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level

Rui Ponte 1 Mark Carson 2 Mauro Cirano Catia Domingues 3 Svetlana Jevrejeva 4 Marta Marcos 5 Gary Mitchum R. van de Wal Philip Woodworth 6 Michael Ablain 7 Fabrice Ardhuin 8 Valérie Ballu 9 Melanie Becker 10 Jérôme Benveniste 11 Florence Birol 12 Elizabeth Bradshaw Anny Cazenave 10 P. de Mey-Frémaux Fabien Durand Tal Ezer Lee-Lueng Fu 13 Ichiro Fukumori Kathy Gordon Médéric Gravelle 9 Stephen Griffies 14 Weiqing Han 15 Angela Hibbert Chris Hughes 16 Déborah Idier 17 Villy Kourafalou Christopher Little Andrew Matthews Angélique Mélet 10 Mark Merrifield Benoit Meyssignac 10 Shoshiro Minobe Thierry Penduff 18 Nicolas Picot 19 Christopher Piecuch 20 Richard Ray Lesley Rickards Alvaro Santamaria-Gomez 9 Detlef Stammer 21 Joanna Staneva Laurent Testut 9 Keith Thompson Philip Thompson Stefano Vignudelli 22 Joanne Williams Simon Williams Guy Woppelmann 9 Laure Zanna 23 Xuebin Zhang 24
Abstract : A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multidecadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes.We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting shortterm processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.
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Rui Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia Domingues, Svetlana Jevrejeva, et al.. Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level. Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media, 2019, 6, ⟨10.3389/fmars.2019.00437⟩. ⟨hal-02323507⟩

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