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The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Fernando Colchero 1 Owen r. Jones 1 Dalia Conde 1 David M. Hodgson 2 Felix Zajitschek 3 Benedikt Schmidt 4 Aurelio Malo 5 Susan Alberts 6 Peter Becker 7 Sandra Bouwhuis 8 Anne Bronikowski 9 Kristel Vleeschouwer 10 Richard Delahay 11 Stefan Dummermuth 12 Eduardo Fernández‐duque 13 John Frisenvænge 14 Martin Hesselsøe 14 Sam Larson 15 Jean-François Lemaître 16 Jennifer Mcdonald 17 David Miller 18 Colin O'Donnell 19 Craig Packer 20 Becky Raboy 21 Chris Reading 22 Erik Wapstra 23 Henri Weimerskirch 24 Geoffrey While 24 Anne Baudisch 25 Thomas Flatt 26 Tim Coulson 27 Jean‐michel Gaillard 16 
Abstract : The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stagevs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, July 31, 2019 - 11:38:09 AM
Last modification on : Friday, August 5, 2022 - 3:44:07 PM

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Fernando Colchero, Owen r. Jones, Dalia Conde, David M. Hodgson, Felix Zajitschek, et al.. The diversity of population responses to environmental change. Ecology Letters, Wiley, 2019, 22 (342-353), ⟨10.1111/ele.13195⟩. ⟨hal-02200582⟩



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