Perceptions of climate and climate change by Amazonian communities
Résumé
The Amazon region has been undergoing profound transformations since the late 15 '70s through forest degradation, land use changes and effects of global climate change. The 16 perception of such changes by local communities is important for risk analysis and 17 for subsequent societal decision making. In this study, we compare and contrast observations 18 and perceptions of climate change by selected Amazonian communities particularly vulnerable 19 to alterations in precipitation regimes. Two main points were analysed: (i) the notion of 20 changes in the annual climate cycle and (ii) the notion of changes in rainfall patterns. About 21 72% of the sampled population reports perceptions of climate changes, and there is a robust 22 signal of increased perception with age. Other possible predictive parameters such as gender, 23 fishing frequency and changes in/planning of economic activities do not appear overall as 24 contributing to perceptions. The communities' perceptions of the changes in 2013-2014 were 25 then compared to earlier results (2007-2008), providing an unprecedented cohort study of the 26 same sites. Results show that climate change perceptions and measured rainfall variations 27 differ across the basin. It was only in the southern part of the Amazon that both measured and 28 perceived changes in rainfall patterns were consistent with decreased precipitation. However, 29 the perception of a changing climate became more widespread and frequently mentioned, 30 signalling an increase in awareness of climate risk. 31 32
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