A Model for Predicting Wine Quality in a Rhône Valley Vineyard
Résumé
A model was developed as a tool to evaluate wine quality via submodels that represent soil, plants, meteorology, agronomic variables, various vineyard parameters, grape (Vitis vinifera L.) characteristics, and enological practices. The model is based on a highly extensive and unique dataset collected from a single Rhone Valley vineyard (Domaine de Beaurenard) in southern France and the expertise of its winemaker. This modeling study is a first step toward simulating the quality of a wine on the basis of 88 variables in the vineyard and 56 enological variables. The model was validated by comparing the scores predicted by the model with actual scores given by the international press for 49 modeled wines. At the end of the study, the model was compared against other statistical models. Through this model, winemakers can predict future wine quality early and develop improved business strategies. This modeling study was created for and applied directly to the studied situation (Chateauneuf du Pape, Cotes du Rhone, and Rasteau) and is not directly transferable to other situations. Nonetheless, it can serve as a basis for studies in other vineyards because, with the development of precision farming and the multiplication of sensors in agronomy, most wineries will soon have access to the necessary data to model the quality of their wine.