Assessing the increase in wildfire activity with climate change in Southern France

Hélène Fargeon (1) , Thomas Opitz (2) , François Pimont (1) , Nicolas Martin-StPaul (1) , Miquel de Caceres (3) , Julien Ruffault (4) , Jean-Luc Dupuy (1)

1 URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes
2 BioSP - Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux
3 CTFC - Centre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya
4 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale

According to climate projections, global warming is associated with increasing temperatures and dry spells in some parts of the world, especially the Mediterranean area. However, it is quite challenging for the scientific community to assess the intensity of these changes, because (i) the trend relies on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenario and (ii) fire occurrence depends on multiple factors (including climate, but not only). A proper assessment of the trend in terms of fire activity still lacks, especially for the French territory. Our study refines traditional approaches of fire risk projection under climate change by translating a danger index into potential fire activity (fire occurrence above 1 ha and burnt area).

Mots clés: climate change; wildfire; INLA; burnt area; fire occurrence; global change; fire

Mots clés: changement climatique; incendie; sud de la france

Domaines: Milieux et Changements globaux

Hélène Fargeon, Thomas Opitz, François Pimont, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Miquel de Caceres, et al.. Assessing the increase in wildfire activity with climate change in Southern France. 6. International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference, International Association of Wildland Fire. USA., Apr 2019, Marseille, France. ⟨hal-02154472⟩