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Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators' Risk Aversion

Abstract : Real-time current-carrying capacity of overhead conductors is extremely variable due to its dependence on weather conditions, resulting in the use of traditionally conservative static ratings. This paper proposes a methodology for exploiting the latent current-carrying capacity of overhead transmission lines taking into account line ampacity forecasts, power flow simulations and the network operator's risk aversion. The procedure can be described as follows: Firstly, probabilistic forecasts for the current rating of transmission lines are generated, paying particular attention to the reliability of the lower part of the distribution. Secondly, a cost benefit analysis is carried out by solving a bilevel stochastic problem that takes into account the reduction in generation costs resulting from a higher power transfer capacity and the increased use of reserves caused by forecast errors. The risk appetite of the network operator is considered in order to accept or penalize high-risk situations, depending on whether the network operator can be described as risk neutral or risk averse.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 12, 2019 - 12:07:25 PM
Last modification on : Monday, June 27, 2022 - 3:06:10 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 13, 2019 - 2:00:10 PM

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Romain Dupin, Andrea Michiorri, Georges Kariniotakis. Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators' Risk Aversion. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, In press, pp.1-1. ⟨10.1109/TPWRS.2018.2889973⟩. ⟨hal-01998856⟩

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