Développement d'une méthodologie pour la garantie de performance énergétique en réhabilitation basée sur la régression quantile

Abstract : Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) aims at promoting refurbishment funding but its development is constrained by consumption forecasting reliability. The methodology presented in this article is based on a statistical study of a Monte-Carlo analysis including the description of model inputs' uncertainties, and on the modelling of dynamic loads variability. The impact of measurement uncertainties during the verification period is integrated into the methodology and a risk model is provided by a quantile regression method. It allows the joint determination of a guaranteed consumption limit and the failure risk of this commitment. A case study is presented in which a guaranteed relative gain on heating energy consumption is provided after a residential building refurbishment. The variation of the expected percentage gain according to adjustment factors values is studied.
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Simon Ligier, Patrick Schalbart, Bruno Peuportier. Développement d'une méthodologie pour la garantie de performance énergétique en réhabilitation basée sur la régression quantile. IBPSA France, May 2018, Bordeaux, France. ⟨hal-01982635⟩

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